Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Whither the tea-baggers...

Recent elections seem to be challenging the cable-news narrative of a great Republican wave in November. First, John Murtha's seat was held decisively by the Democrats, after weeks of speculation that it would be another Scott Brown level catastrophe. Then, Arlen Specter lost his first election battle in years - not to the other party, but to the left wing of his own (adopted) party. This, more than anything, fails to fit into the GOP-takes-all story arc. It's true that anti-incumbent sentiment is running high, but I still fail to see how that translates directly into GOP gains this November.

The challenge facing both parties - but especially the Republicans - is how to fit an increasingly compartmentalized electorate into the two party big-tent system. As information is increasingly available and decentralized it becomes easier for individuals to find a like-minded community. The more these associational groups emerge and try to make their voices heard, the more difficult it will be for the two parties to find their message. Not to get too far ahead of myself here, but we may just be witnessing the biggest shift in our political make-up since the beginning of the 20th century. That era saw a huge upswing in 3rd party politics - which was only interrupted by national crises. Without the presence of a strong ideological enemy (the Depression, the Nazi's, the Commies, etc) it's just possible that the American party system might break up for good. This of course, remains to be seen. But if tea-bagger candidates fail to win big in November, it's hard to imagine that they'll just take all that impotent rage and go home. If it can't fit in the GOP tent, where can it?

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